Strictly Market Profile

In efforts to get diversity I have created a system which with buy securities at EOD and a typical hold 1-2 trading days (or as I see fit). I have created a spreadsheet which will track this systems performance.

Twading

2011-04-19T15:32:00.003-04:00

How to get to the next level of your trader development - Webinar with Dr. Brett

2011-04-18T17:33:00.006-04:00

Scenarios 4/7/2011 pre-market

2011-04-07T08:01:00.002-04:00

Looking for a breakout/breakdown

PopDoc Webinar Recap

2011-04-07T07:14:00.002-04:00

Scenarios 3/31/2011 pre-market

2011-03-31T09:17:00.001-04:00

Market Mind Games: Numbers are Just a Language

2011-03-30T22:45:00.000-04:00

Market Mind Games: Numbers are Just a Language: "In this rare trading psychology webinar from Denise Shull, we will look at how traders need to analyze what other traders are doing in order to better understand where markets will be heading. Using feelings and emotions rather than simply market numbers will improve your trading."

Scenarios 3/30/2011 pre-market

2011-03-30T09:20:00.001-04:00

Traders Psych Webinar Recap

2011-03-29T17:48:00.004-04:00

Scenarios 3/29/2011 pre-market

2011-03-29T09:16:00.004-04:00

Capital Flow

2011-03-06T22:55:00.001-05:00

Capital Flow -

Transaction Analysis by Quantitative Brokers

2011-03-06T21:10:00.000-05:00

QB - Transaction Analysis from Quantitative Brokers on Vimeo.

Turtles

2011-02-23T01:32:00.004-05:00

turtlerules -

Scenarios 1/14/2011 pre-market

2011-01-14T08:32:00.001-05:00

Scenarios 1/13/2011 pre-market

2011-01-13T09:12:00.002-05:00

Scenarios 1/11/2011 pre-market

2011-01-11T08:36:00.001-05:00

Scenarios 1/10/2011 pre-market

2011-01-10T08:31:00.004-05:00

Trend up day with a little twist ...

2010-07-22T17:23:00.006-04:00

A polynomial regression view

The skew of the channel turns up late in the morning

After 1 hour

Skew turns flat/down late in the day

Market Delta View

Candlestick view

Trend down day....

2010-07-18T12:37:00.003-04:00

The trend down day was very similar to the trend up day from 1 week ago

Divergence....

2010-07-13T00:04:00.002-04:00

I am very willing to sell a gap up tomorrow.....

Characteristics of a trend up day....Daily view

2010-07-10T19:00:00.002-04:00

A complete affirmation to my thoughts

2009-12-02T09:22:00.002-05:00

Tom did a webinar with Ben this morning and complete affirmed my post from last night. Please pay attention to what he says before the webinar starts its hilarious.

One huge balance area

2009-12-01T19:33:00.001-05:00

Initiative trades are in order.

Both charts are compliments of each other.

Another great video from my mentor

2009-11-28T18:56:00.004-05:00

This video is a great compliment to my videos and in more detail on how AMP works from Tom Alexander.

Intermediate term view

2009-11-28T18:29:00.007-05:00

The bull trend is still intact, as I have updated this chart several times showing the POC for each quarter. Since the march low's POC has gone up roughly 90-100 point each quarter and this one is no different a break of 1045 seen on the second chart would make me wary.

Recognizing when to take Responsive or Initiative trades

2009-11-18T22:32:00.002-05:00

Seeing the Auction through bar charts...

2009-11-05T19:47:00.018-05:00

Market Profile is a tool that can be used to view the Auction Market, but that doest mean that bar charts cannot be used to do this also. As a matter of fact sometimes its easier to see something on a bar chart than in a Market Profile chart. In the picture below I have highlighted the process and how I do it.

Characteristics of a market ....Update

2009-11-02T21:00:00.003-05:00

This 90 Percent down days have worked like clockwork....

Levels to watch for tomorrow

2009-11-02T20:54:00.002-05:00

Characteristics of a market ....

2009-10-29T17:01:00.003-04:00

Every market has a character this one is no different. In the picture above I have highlighted with vertical yellow line the 90% volume down days where breadth on NYSE issues has gone below -2000.

Longer term view

2009-10-29T16:47:00.004-04:00

This view is an update of my previous post as we can see the quarterly POC moved up from 1067 to now 1082

Weekend Review

2009-10-25T12:20:00.004-04:00

As seen in those 2 pictures this is a very mature balance area, we have spent the majority of October since 8/15 in this balance area. I expect this balance area to be broken as soon as early next week.

This is the merged view of the TPO's. Same picture here a break of 1070 should take us to 1063.

$AMZN

2009-10-23T12:38:00.003-04:00

Giving Amazon a few more day before I buy puts on it.

General Overview

2009-10-23T12:12:00.003-04:00

Still in balance

Got tossed.... but I still caught

2009-10-21T16:38:00.005-04:00

It funny sometimes how market operate, its almost like people are watching over my back to see what I am doing or maybe a big firm saw my blog and just decided to stop me out. I had a vision coming into today and I knew what I wanted to do. After I saw this morning action I knew the market wanted to test 1095, I shorted that level with a 2 point stop and quickly got stopped. See the more mature a balance area (bell shape) is the more likely hood is that it goes into vertical development to find a new area. I knew the market was going to break one way or another so I quickly reversed near the top at 1097 then here come the trickery, fake break out and remained in a range all day till it stopped me at 1092. So here I am staring at a 7 point loss in my account for no reason, I knew that if we broke 1091 with some volume I was going to pounce hard on this market as I said when this balance area become mature the move is bigger, those are the times you want to be trading if anything. Got short at 1090 in size covered most of it at 1085 (the node) but still riding some. The frustrating thing is that I knew what this market was going to do it was clear to me as day light but it still managed to get some points out of me. I guess the lesson here is your not WRONG until you are it seems like most people are very aware on where the hurting spots are so you have to be cognizant of that and maybe allow yourself a better stop or a better entry so that you are not put in a position where you doubt yourself.

Great post by my mentor...

2009-10-21T07:06:00.014-04:00

This post explains the 2 trades, Responsive and Initiative. Today you should be looking for Initiative trades....

P.S Switch to a full screen mode for better view

Todays setup of 2b

2009-10-20T23:51:00.002-04:00

Trading Methods For Market Profile

2009-10-20T23:36:00.001-04:00

(Category 1)
Trading Methods For Market Profile

Only trade in the direction of the trend (Trend is determined by a rising or falling Point Of Control/POC)

Trade setup #1a: In a down trending market, when the current session opens below the previous day’s Value Area/VA enter a short trade at the previous day’s lower VA and again at the previous day’s POC/HVL placing a protective stop for both trades 1.5 points above the previous day’s upper VA.

Trade setup #1b: In an up trending market, when the current session opens above the previous day’s VA enter a long trade at the previous day’s upper VA and again at the previous day’s POC/HVL placing a protective stop for both trades 1.5 points below the previous day’s lower VA

Trade setup #2a: In a down trending market, when the current session opens within the previous VA enter a short trade at the upper VA placing a stop 1.5 points above the Day Before Yesterday’s/DBY POC or High Volume Level/HVL (the open price must be at least 2 points below the previous days upper VA)

Trade setup #2b: In an up trending market, when the current session opens within the previous days VA enter a long trade at the lower VA placing a stop 1.5 points below the DBY’s POC/HVL (the open price must be at least 2 points above the previous days lower VA)

Trade setup #3a: In a down trending market, when the current session opens above the previous days upper VA and below the DBY’s lower VA enter a short trade at the DBY’s lower VA and again at the DBY’s HVL placing a stop for both trades 1.5 points above the DBY’s upper VA (if stopped out on this setup and price remains above the stop level, change directional bias for all category 2 trade setups for the remainder of the day)

Trade setup #3b: In an up trending market, when the current session opens below the previous days lower VA and above the DBY’s upper VA enter a long trade at the DBY’s upper VA and again at the DBY’s HVL placing a stop for both trades 1.5 points below the DBY’s lower VA (if stopped out on this setup and price remains below the stop level, change directional bias for all category 2 trade setups for the
remainder of the day)

Trade setup #4a: In a down trending market, when the current session opens above the DBY’s lower VA and below the DBY’s POC enter a short trade at the DBY’s POC and again at the DBY’s upper VA placing a stop 1.5 points abve the DBY’s High Of the Day/HOD (if stopped out on this setup and price remains above the stop level, change directional bias for all category 2 trade setups for the remainder of the day)
Trade setup #4b: In an up trending market, when the current session opens below the DBY’s upper VA and above the DBY’s POC enter a long trade at the DBY’s POC and again at the DBY’s lower VA placing a stop 1.5 points below the DBY’s Low Of the Day/LOD (if stopped out on this setup and price remains below the stop level, change directional bias for all category 2 trade setups for the remainder of the day)

Profit targets for all trades should be in consideration of the risk of each respective trade and should be placed in consideration of the previous days POC, VA or HVL

(Category 2)
Trading Methods For Market Profile

Category 2 trades are based off the current sessions VA, HVL and POC with profit targets of approximately 2 points (they will generally setup after steps 1 and 2 have occurred in the market profile’s development)

When a Category 2 trade’s entrance level matches up with a previous days HVL It is referred to as a Category 2+ trade (category 2+ trades are generally good for 3 or more points)

Step 1 being vertical movement of price and step 2 being the capping of step 1

Step 1 will generally takes place during the Initial Balance/IB period of the day (the first 60 minutes) Step 2 often occurs during the IB period as well

Step 3 is when the market begins to move more in a horizontal direction than vertical direction and the bell curve begins to take shape

Step 4 is when the bell curve is becoming fully developed and its POC tries to drift towards the center of the IB, if it is not already in the center (occasionally steps 3 or 4 do not fully develop and the market enters step 1 again, this is known as minus development)

Minus development is very helpful in showing the direction of the market

Getting a little bearish but not too bearish....

2009-10-20T22:55:00.005-04:00

As we can see in the first picture I have played out what might happen tomorrow, I have a bearish scenario just because this looks to me like a failed auction. This type of thing usually ends up reversing on the other side, unless we break 1095 with force I will stay bearish what didn't completely made me bearish was the close today but I think most of it was due to short covering. The perfect close for this bearish scenario would have been a close below the node at 1083 seen on the second picture, so I will be watching tomorrow closely to see how this develops.

General Overview

2009-10-20T00:14:00.002-04:00

What I use, learned and how......

2009-10-17T20:21:00.009-04:00

Ok, It seem that I keep answering the same questions over and over....lol. So I am going to put everything out there:

I have read: Markets in Profile: Profiting from the Auction Process (Find it on amazon), Mind over Markets: Power Trading With Market Generated Information (Find it on amazon), CBOT Market Profile Handbook (Find it here ), Practical Trading Applications Of Market Profile ( Find it here ), Several handbooks and interview and video with J. Peter Steidlmayer and Jim Dalton (Found at http://www.tradingclinic.com), lots of Dan Gramza videos (Found here Overall CME website has lots of good videos on Market Profile)

I currently have subscription to:
http://www.ioamt.com/

I had when I started subscription to:
http://www.alexandertrading.com/site/ - Great info for beginners
http://www.tradingclinic.com - Great website to get info/videos and handouts

I use:
https://www.linnsoft.com/ - Investor RT for Market Profile charting
I have account's with and trade with:
https://www.thinkorswim.com
http://www.mirusfutures.com/
http://www.ninjatrader.com/webnew/index.htm

Helpful websites that I check out everyday:
http://www.traderslaboratory.com/ - Lots of MP addicts

THERE IS NO HOLY GRAIL IN TRADING, THERE IS NO SPECIAL THING THAT I USE THATS GOING TO MAKE YOU MONEY, JUST PUT YOUR TIME AND READ/LEARN SOMETHING NEW EVERYDAY.

Updated: October 18, 2009 (will update this as I continue to learn and read new things)

Quarterly view of MP's

2009-10-17T19:22:00.004-04:00

The ES bars are invisible.
The POC for each quarter has moved roughly 90-100 points give or take since March, I will be watching this to see if there is a slow down in momentum. For now it looks on track.

2 year view Master Chart

2009-10-17T18:51:00.003-04:00

Most of the idicators in here can be found on http://www.thinkscripter.com/

General Overview

2009-10-17T18:26:00.002-04:00

Almost the same picture here 1084 is a key level next week.

Globex and RTH merged view

2009-10-17T18:14:00.002-04:00

Globex and RTH

2009-10-16T11:23:00.001-04:00

General Overview

2009-10-16T11:16:00.004-04:00

1 week - 1 month view

Responsive buyer should step in at that 76-78 levels

2 year view

2009-10-14T22:29:00.001-04:00

Nothing but thin air
2 year view 10/14/07 - 10/14/09

Market continues to build value higher

2009-10-14T22:11:00.003-04:00

Unfortunately I cannot get on the bandwagon, there is lots of internals that are not confirming and Russell and Nasdaq didn't confirm the highs. A wise man told me once there is INFINITE number of opportunities in the market, but you have a FINITE capital.

General Overview

2009-10-14T11:56:00.001-04:00

1 week - 1 month

Midday Update

2009-10-14T11:37:00.007-04:00

After we bounced of the node in the morning we rotated back up to last night's POC, the lack of volume and non expansion in breath makes me belive that rotation back down is to be expected.

Morning Trade

2009-10-14T10:03:00.002-04:00

If your bullish you don't want to see that high volume node taken out. That would set the tone for lower prices.

Overnight Trading

2009-10-14T00:48:00.002-04:00

We are building value higher here, I would not be surprised to see another 10 points higher by the morning. The only problem why I cannot trade this is simple, I just do not know the R/R (Risk/Reward). I am not sure what target is this market trying to hit so that puts me on the sidelines

Intel - INTC

2009-10-13T17:36:00.004-04:00

I love to play earnings, last week I tweeted several times to short AA - Alcoa based on market profile. Here I am taking a look at INTC but based on market profile this one is not to be shorted. It can go as high as $26 before it takes a break, maybe at a later time will take a look at this.

The pictures are quarterly view and yearly view.

Overnight Trading

2009-10-13T16:55:00.002-04:00

I didn't use to pay attention to overnight before but I am finding it more useful day after day, as most of the moves recently have been happening overnight.

Levels to watch for tomorrow.

2009-10-13T16:10:00.000-04:00

Levels to watch for tomorrow.

2009-10-12T18:09:00.000-04:00